Bitcoin LTHs that Bought Between 2017 and 2020 Are Not Selling Yet
Data from Glassnode shows that recent selling by long-term Bitcoin holders has come from those who bought at more recent prices, not from hodlers who entered during the 2017-2020 cycle.
Long-term Bitcoin holders sell with an average loss of 33%
According to the latest weekly report from glass knotSOPR, the long-term holder of BTC, has been worth less than one for the past few weeks.
The “Production Spent Profit Ratio” is an indicator that tells us whether Bitcoin investors are selling with profit or loss right now.
When the value of the ratio is greater than one, it means that the market as a whole is currently selling with some profit. On the other hand, the value of the indicator being less than one implies that investors are currently making a certain loss on average.
Naturally, the value of the metric being exactly one suggests that the market is just breaking even at the moment.
The “long-term holder” group is a cohort that includes all investors who have held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days before selling.
Now, here is a graph that shows the SOPR trend over the last decade specifically for these LTHs:
Looks like the value of the indicator has been going down recently | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 28, 2022
As you can see in the chart above, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling at an average loss of 33% for the past few days.
Related Reading | Bitcoin bearish signal: the leverage ratio is still very high
However, as shown in the chart below, the average LTH cost base is around $22,300, which is only around 6% below the price of BTC at the time of the report’s publication ( it is now 10% at the current rate).
The BTC price seems to have sunk below the LTH cost basis recently | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 28, 2022
LTHs selling at an average loss of 33% despite the cost base putting them only 10% below water means that the recent sell-off has mostly come from hodlers who have been buying at the recent highs.
Related Reading | Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Says “Get Ready” For Massive Bitcoin Rally
This would suggest that LTHs that have accumulated in the 2017-2020 cycle or before (and therefore are either in profit or in little loss) still hold their Bitcoin.
As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin is hovering around $19.7,000, up 1% in the past seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 31% in value.
The chart below shows the price trend of the coin over the past five days.
The value of the crypto seems to have been going down during the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com