Should I sell my shares? There are hundreds of reasons to be released on bail, but only one reason to buy.


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Even Apple and Amazon’s earnings flop didn’t impact the stock market

Spencer Platt / Getty Images

There are more and more reasons why it is time to sell stocks. But there is only one reason to buy: the stock market is going up.

Like so many times this year, we had plenty of reasons to cut back on inventory last week. There have been revenue disappointments from people like


(ticker: AAPL),

(AMZN), and


(BA); a weak publication of the gross domestic product of the United States; and even a rapid flattening of the yield curve. The stock market ignored everything.


Dow Jones Industrial Average

rose 142.54 points, or 0.4%, while the

S&P 500

increased by 1.3% and the

Nasdaq Composite

gained 2.7%. All three finished the week at record highs.

Some of them were worth ignoring. The yield curve – the difference between short and long-term Treasury yields – fell 0.15 percentage points in a single day, a massive move that was blamed on fears that the Federal Reserve might raise rates interest too quickly. However, technical reasons were most likely at the origin of the shrinkage.

For most of us, the only time we need to watch the curve is when it “flips”. This is when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, and it’s usually a sign that a recession is on the way. The current difference is 1.0678 points. We are still far from it.

Even the Apple and Amazon earnings flop didn’t affect the stock market, and it didn’t really hurt Apple or Amazon stocks either. Apple fell on Friday after only hitting profit expectations and running out of sales, but still ended the week up 0.8%. Amazon fell last Friday after missing everything, but it also ended the week up, up 1.1%. “[Investors] saw Apple and Amazon’s poor performance and supply chain constraints as a short-term problem and nothing that will derail their dominance, ”writes Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at Oanda.

A sourpuss, especially one that sold during September’s 5% drop, especially in the face of so much bad news, might suggest that market resilience is something to fear, not to celebrate. Either way, the pros, at least, may have no choice but to go all out, especially if they need to catch up with the market by the end of the year. , notes Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields, and that could keep the market bullish. . “The market ignored / survived a lot of bad news,” he writes. “To whatever degree, higher seems likely.”

History suggests that there is a good chance that the market will go up, at least on the basis of a measure of magnitude. The NYSE Cumulative Advance / Decline Line, which tracks rising and falling stocks overall, finally hit an all-time high last week, something it had not done since June. When the A / D line hit a new high after more than 90 days, the S&P 500 was higher three months later 22 out of 25 times since 1935, according to Jason Goepfert of Sundial Capital Research, while gaining a median of 4 , 1%. “Over a very long history, the odds favor the rise in equities, or at least only limited declines, after large surges,” he explains.

This coming week there are gains of



Electronic arts

(AE), and


(ROKU), a Fed meeting and the release of the October payroll figures, and it could all be used as an excuse to sell.


Write to Ben Levisohn at [email protected]

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